Anthony Davis has to decide if New Orleans can build a winning foundation like the Spurs did for Tim Duncan (#21) before accepting the Pelicans offer of a contract extension. (Photo courtesy NOLA.com)
The New Orleans Pelicans are expected to offer superstar forward Anthony Davis a five-year contract extension on July 1. The deal is expected to be worth more than $143 million, or an average salary of nearly $29 million over the life of the deal.
Sounds like a great deal on the surface. $29 million is certainly nothing to sneeze at. Locking up an MVP-caliber talent as he gets into his prime is a no-brainer for the Pelicans, no matter the cost.
But Anthony Davis lives in a time where NBA players of his caliber rarely give up leverage, even if it is in exchange for exorbitant amounts of cash. Right now, Davis has plenty of it.
I’m sure that A.D. has watched how LeBron James has wielded his power over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Since rejoining the Cavs last summer, “King” James has placed his fingerprints on just about every move the franchise has made. He’s essentially taken a “one year at a time” approach to his team, making sure that owner Dan Gilbert feels sufficient pressure to make the moves that will both keep Cleveland competitive and appease James.
While Davis has not displayed the same Machiavellian tendencies at LeBron, he has no less incentive to exert whatever influence that he can over the Pelicans and their front office.
The Pelicans have yet to demonstrate that they are worthy of Davis making the same commitment to them that they seem to be willing to make to him. The Pels haven’t drafted well; Davis is currently the only player on the roster picked by New Orleans. A number of their core players have shown an inability to stay healthy (Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson), putting the burden on Davis to be spectacular nearly every night. Fortunately, he rarely disappoints.
There’s no history of winning to lean on either. New Orleans has been to the playoffs just once with Davis, a first round sweep at the hands of the eventual champion Golden St. Warriors, and only six times since 2002-03. The Hornets/Pelicans have never advanced past the second round.
A look around the landscape of the ultra-competitive Western Conference shows that for a team to be counted among the elite it needs at least two All-Star caliber players. As of today, they have one. Finding that second star has to be as important to general manager Dell Demps as getting Davis’ signature on an extension.
What makes the most sense for Davis is to wait it out. He should see if he meshes with Gentry (I think he will). He should see if he can get a full season out of his backcourt (I don’t think he will). He should see if the Pelicans can retain their free agents and if they can solve their problem at the small forward position (I’ll wait and see as well).
Alvin Gentry compared Davis to future Hall of Famers Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett when discussing the forward’s impressive skill set. The two also represent two possible glimpses into Davis’ future.
Duncan came into the league matched with a Hall of Fame center and a group of veterans and nearly 20 years later has five championships with the same organization. His career has been stable, steady, and incredibly successful.
Garnett joined the Minnesota Timberwolves and dragged a moribund franchise into respectability. He was a beloved icon in Minny, but his front office struggled to build around him, resulting in a number of early playoff exits and just one trip to a conference final series. KG had to look elsewhere to realize his championship dream, knowing he stayed too loyal for too long to the franchise that drafted him.
If someone asked you today which path seems more likely for Davis, even the most ardent Pelicans fan would have to choose Garnett’s. That doesn’t mean it is what will be, but it has to be something that Davis’ advisors, if not A.D. himself, must consider.
Mickey Loomis and Dell Demps could be standing on Davis’ doorstep at 11:00:01 PM tonight, but I can’t imagine a scenario where Davis signs that extension. There’s too much that isn’t in that contract that could determine how much it’s really worth.
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