Saints season still alive thanks to chaotic NFL…and Mark Ingram

Mark Ingram could be the key to the Saints drive to the playoffs.

Baseball and basketball seasons are tests of endurance.  162 and 82 game marathons that rarely allow for any single game or series to have too much weight.  The NFL is a completely different animal. Altogether.

Just look around the league and see how quickly what we believed to be true, just isn’t anymore.

A week ago, the Dallas Cowboys were being talked about as the best team in the NFC.  A Monday night loss at home to Washington, an injury to Tony Romo’s twice surgically repaired back, and a new Jerry Jones/Jason Garrett controversy have now brought the usual questions about the stability of “America’s Team” to the forefront.

It wasn’t that long ago when Bill Belichick was answering questions about Tom Brady’s job security.  The AFC East was considered up for grabs. Four games and 14 touchdown passes later, Brady heads into the weekend where he’s been for most of his career; in first place in the division and in contention for the top seed in the AFC Playoffs.

It can be argued that no team has benefited more than the New Orleans Saints from the unpredictable nature of the National Football League.

After an embarrassing loss to the Detroit Lions where the Black and Gold blew a fourth quarter lead and extended their regular season road losing streak to seven games, the Saints were almost left for dead.  At 2-4, the only prayer was that the rest of the NFC South would be so awful that a mediocre season could still allow for the Saints to make the playoffs.

Prayer answered.

This past weekend the rest of the division went 0-3.  The NFC South hasn’t had a winning record in any week this season.  It is the only division in the NFL being led by a team with a losing record.  If the Saints can go on the road to Carolina and snap that losing streak, they will find themselves alone in first place at the half-way mark of their schedule.

Sunday night’s win over the Green Bay Packers looked familiar in a lot of ways.  The Superdome was as raucous as ever.  Drew Brees threw for 311 yards and three touchdowns.  The Saints defense was opportunistic, forcing three turnovers and collected four sacks and five hits on Green Bay quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Matt Flynn.

Nothing was a more welcome sight, however, than Mark Ingram’s stat line.  His 24 carries for 172 yards, both career highs, set the tone for the Saints.  He provided the balance that allowed the Saints play-action passing game to flourish. Mike McCarthy said the Packers are going to focus on tackling after their effort against the former Heisman Trophy winner, but no one has been able to get a handle on Ingram all season.  Outside of the Detroit game, which was his first back from injury, he has dominated.  In games against Atlanta, Cleveland, and Green Bay he has a combined 48 carries for 315 yards and 4 touchdowns with a staggering 6.56 yards per carry average.  Even when you include the sub-par effort against Detroit, Ingram leads all NFL running backs with 5.7 yards per attempt.

For a player who started the season as one of the team’s biggest question marks, Ingram has turned into the Saints’ offensive MVP.  He’s shown the ability to break tackles and make people miss.  He’s finally becoming the player that New Orleans traded back into the first round to get.

If he can stay healthy the rest of the year and Sean Payton maintains the type of balanced play calling that he showed Sunday night, the Saints can still make some noise in the NFC.

The schedule that seemed so daunting a few weeks ago….now, not so much.  Carolina and San Francisco have been inconsistent.  Chicago is imploding, though the Saints still have to travel to windy Soldier field in December for that one.  The Saints will go into the last two weeks with a home game against an Atlanta team that may have checked out and a Tampa team that will have nothing to play for either.  A split with the Panthers and a sweep of the Bucs and Falcons would give Sean Payton’s team a 4-2 division record.  Even a 1-2 record against Cincinnati, Baltimore and Pittsburgh would put the Saints at 8-8 and probably clinch the division.

A division title means a home playoff game and no one wants to come to the Superdome to face Drew Brees and company, no matter what the record.  Anything can still happen, and it just might.

 

Business as usual; many coaches on the hotseat in NFL

Every season is the same.  Some teams exceed expectations.  Some teams “are who we thought they were“.  And there are those that fail to live  up to lofty preseason aspirations only to fail miserably; devastating and embarrassing both their owners and their fans.  Those teams, invariably, lose their head coaches.  “We can’t trade all the players.  We can’t get a better owner.  We can fire the coach.”  That’s the business of the NFL.

Jeff Fisher has gotten a lot of mileage out of a pretty mediocre career record. He finds himself on the hot seat after a 1-4 start in St. Louis. (Photo: Jeff Curry – USA Today Sports)

One coach, the Raiders’ Dennis Allen, has already been sacrificed to the NFL gods.  By December 29, 2014, one day after the last regular season game is played, there will be many more.  Last season there were seven coaching changes and seven could be the magic number again this year.

Let’s take a look at the most likely candidates to be shown the door:

NFC

Jay Gruden (Washington) – Gruden has not gotten off to a good start.  Washington is 1-5 this season and has lost its last four games in a row.  Robert Griffin III is injured (again).  Kirk Cousins had a couple of nice moments, but he’s thrown seven interceptions in his last three games.  The defense has given up an average of more than 27 points per game.  Washington, sitting behind 5-1 Philadelphia and Dallas and a 3-3 Giants team, looks to be out of the playoff race and they haven’t even made it to their bye week.  Washington is no stranger to the early coaching exit under owner Daniel Snyder either.  Since he purchased the team in 1999, five of his eight head coaches led the team for two seasons or less.

Mike McCarthy (Green Bay) – All is not well in Packerland.  The Packers are 4-2 and tied with Detroit atop the NFC North, but does anyone really feel good about Green Bay’s Super Bowl chances?  The Pack was manhandled by Seattle in Week 1, that Jets win in Week 2 looks less and less impressive by the moment.  The Lions physically dominated them and they struggled to beat Miami this past Sunday.  They’ve looked their best against a disappointing Chicago squad and a Minnesota team that was playing its third-string quarterback and a backup running back on a short week.  McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers aren’t always on the same page and another season without a Super Bowl appearance could get Green Bay interested in a change.

Mike Smith (Atlanta) – The Falcons have exhibited none of the toughness that Smith was brought from Baltimore to instill.  Outside of a Week 1 win against the Saints and a blowout of the hapless Buccaneers, the Dirty Birds have stunk.  Matt Ryan and the offense have been solid but the Falcons still don’t have a consistent running game and their defense is among the NFL’s very worst.  They allowed rookie Teddy Bridgewater to throw for 300 yards in his first NFL start.  They’ve given up the second most points in the NFC and all four of their losses have been by double digits.  They have just six sacks in six games and have just two interceptions.  Arthur Blank is getting a new stadium soon, he may get a new coach to go with it.

Lovie Smith (Tampa Bay) – Lovie Smith should not be an NFL head coach.  That’s the only conclusion you can come to if you’ve watched the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season.  He was confident in turning his team’s offense over to Josh McCown, a 35 year old career backup.  McCown put up great numbers last year in a half-season’s work for Chicago, but it was just the second time in his career that he finished a season with more touchdowns than interceptions.  Lovie came to Tampa to shore up a young defense stocked with top draft picks but the Bucs are 31st against the pass and 25th against the run.  They have given up 204 points, worst in the league and the Cover 2 looks like a relic from another era when matched up against just about every offense they’ve faced.  A two or three win season could cost Smith his job after just one year at the helm.

Jeff Fisher (St. Louis) – Everybody thinks Jeff Fisher is a really good coach.  Somebody tell me why.  Fisher has been an NFL coach for 20 years and in that time he has just six winning seasons.  His greatest skill seems to be not allowing a team to be truly awful; he has nine seasons with between seven and eight wins.  He has only three division titles and just five playoff wins, three of which came fifteen years ago.  The last time he won a playoff game, Bill Parcells was still coaching the Cowboys and the Patriots were on their way to their second of three Super Bowls.  Sam Bradford can’t stay healthy, but Austin Davis has been a find.  However, the Rams biggest strength was supposed to be a dominant defensive line, instead the Rams have given up 30 points or more in all four loses and have just one sack.  One sack.  One.  The Rams are not good and Fisher’s going have to trick some other team into believing in him.

Long shots: Tom Coughlin (N.Y. Giants), Ron Rivera (Carolina), Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco)

 

AFC

Joe Philbin (Miami) – On one hand, the Dolphins have gotten better in each of Joe Philbin’s first two seasons.  He’s been training a young quarterback (Ryan Tannehill) who didn’t really play the position very long in college and Tannehill has shown flashes of being very good.  The Dolphins have survived the Richie Incognito scandal.  On the other, the Dolphins play in Miami.  Miami is the kind of town that loses interest in boring teams very quickly and the Dolphins are dull.  They were dominated on the road by Buffalo and by Kansas City at home.  Their Week 1 upset of the Patriots looks like an anomaly for both teams as New England appears to have righted its ship while the Dolphins seem adrift.  If they can’t make the playoffs in year three playing in a weak division of the weaker conference, Philbin could get the blame and get shown the door.

Rex Ryan’s time may be up in New York if the Jets fail to make the playoffs for the third consecutive season. (Photo: Jeff Zelevansky – NY Post)

Rex Ryan (N.Y. Jets) – They’re the Jets.

Tony Sparano (Oakland) – It’s not Sparano’s fault.  The Raiders’ tire fire started long before he arrived and he won’t be given the time to put it out.  The Raiders have hired and fired ten head coaches in the last 20 years. Only two of those coaches left Oakland with a .500 record or better, Jon Gruden (38-26) and Hue Jackson (8-8).  Now it seems the Silver and Black have set their sights on bringing Gruden back or even resurrecting Mike Holmgren.  Whoever the coach will be, it probably won’t be Sparano.

Honorable mention:  Gus Bradley (Jacksonville)

Long shot: Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh)

Saints don’t need Sean Payton to be a genius; just need him to be a football coach

The Saints 1-3 start has head coach Sean Payton looking for answers. He should look at himself. (Photo courtesy The Times-Picayune)

To say the New Orleans Saints’ 1-3 start to the 2014 season has been disappointing would be an understatement.

Saints fans and many in the national media had the Black & Gold as Super Bowl contenders at the very least and possibly favorites to win a second Lombardi trophy.  Now after three devastating road losses and one lackluster home win, there are questions aplenty about what has led to the team’s poor start.

The defense has been the most obvious target.  A unit that had been one of the most pleasant surprises in the league on its way to a fourth place ranking last season has fallen apart.  This year the Saints defense is ranked 29th in the league; just ahead of the Falcons (whom the Saints have already lost to), Jaguars, and Buccaneers.

• They haven’t pressured quarterbacks.  The Saints just have 5 sacks in four games.  At this point last season, they had 12.
• Lack of pressure has led to a lot of passing yards for opposing quarterbacks.  The defense has allowed 1090 passing yards, tied for second worst in the league.
• They are only slightly better against the run, if only because teams have stuck with the pass because they’ve been so successful at it.  The Saints are 24th in the NFL defending on the ground, giving up more than 123 yards per game.
• They haven’t forced turnovers.  The Saints have one fumble recovery, in Week 1 against Atlanta, from a defense that was supposed to be built to create them.  That’s why Jarius Byrd was signed.  That’s why Roman Harper and Malcolm Jenkins were let go.

The offense hasn’t escaped criticism for its spotty play either.  The team’s biggest perceived strength going in to the season has not performed at a level that fans have come to expect.

• The Saints rank just 12th in the league offensively.  They sit behind teams like Washington, Kansas City, and Miami.
• While the Saints are 3rd in passing yards, Drew Brees has just 7 touchdown passes which ranks tied for eighth in the NFL.
• It’s hard to argue that Brees hasn’t been outplayed in all three Saints defeats. Matt Ryan had a career night in Week 1, Brees’ threw a costly pick-six against Cleveland while Brian Hoyer was turnover free, and Tony Romo had best performance of the season while Brees was having his worst this past Sunday.
• Jimmy Graham has not been a consistent difference maker in the passing game.  His numbers look good (32 rec. for 340 yards and 3 TDs), but there have been stretches where he’s disappeared and backup Josh Hill has one fewer touchdown and his longest catch (34 yards) beats Graham’s by eleven yards (23).
• Marques Colston is clearly a player in decline.  Just 12 catches so far this season including only 2 in games against Cleveland and Minnesota.  He also has more drops than touchdowns this season and had the costly fumble against Atlanta.
• The running game has been underutilized and inconsistent.  New Orleans is 19th in rushing attempts but 11th in yards per game.  Fans have voiced frustration that the team hasn’t stuck with the run to protect its defense.

The Saints season is officially on the brink.  They should win this Sunday in the Superdome against the Bucs (I can’t imagine New Orleans if they don’t).  But after that, the team goes into the rest of the season having to face as many as 10 possible playoff contenders in the last 11 weeks.  If the Saints do not make the playoffs this season, one man needs to answer some very serious questions about the future of this team.  That man is head coach Sean Payton.

No coach this side of Bill Belichick wields the kind of power within an organization that Payton does in New Orleans.  This is his team, filled with his guys.  The Super Bowl run in 2009 and the fact that he has all but erased the casual fan’s knowledge that the Saints were once a laughingstock of a team make Payton a local deity.  The coach has enjoyed it and profited from it to the tune of an $8 million annual salary and a slew of endorsements.

Those things aside, the fact remains that under Payton the Saints have not won playoff games in back-to-back seasons and it looks like that streak will continue without a major turnaround.  The team cannot play on the road, going 0-3 this season and losing 8 of their last 9 away from home.  The Saints are supposed to be all in on a Super Bowl run and with Brees now at the age of 35, the Saints can’t afford to look this far away from another championship.  He has been called a genius many times, but right now the Saints don’t need Sean Payton to be a genius; they need him to be a good football coach.

Payton was mentored by Bill Parcells.  Parcells wasn’t credited with inventing any great offensive or defensive innovations.  He had talented teams, but not historically so.  But Bill Parcells won a lot of games in a lot of places by making football look pretty simple.  He took away what other teams did well.  His teams didn’t make mistakes to kill themselves.  They were balanced and poised.

Right now the Saints don’t make the game look simple.  Everything looks hard.  The Saints don’t need fake punts to get two yards on fourth down.  You either trust your Hall of Fame quarterback to get the two yards or you line up and hand it to one of your stable of backs who should be pretty fresh considering not one of them has gotten 20 carries in a game this year.  Before they can force turnovers defensively, they have to tackle better.  And more than anything, they need to find the edge that comes with having something to prove rather than play with the attitude that they have already arrived.

If Payton can get back to basics during this rough stretch as the Saints try to find their way, they could play themselves back into contention.  If not, this will feel like a year wasted by the team and by the fans and the planning for a second Lombardi Gras looks a lot less urgent.